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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 6-C.Schmidt punts 45 yards to NYJ 10, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model