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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 19 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-C.Schmidt punts 48 yards to NYJ 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley pushed ob at NYJ 28 for 4 yards (15-C.Hogan).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 30, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model