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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 24

Buffalo Bills 19 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 2-D.Carpenter 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.40 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 24, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model