Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 61

Buffalo Bills 22 – New York Jets 17

(:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to NYJ 12, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 18 for 6 yards (59-A.Tarpley).

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.59 EP
56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -2.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model