Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 96

New York Jets 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(7:07) 4-R.Quigley punts 21 yards to NYJ 25, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -4.25 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.37 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 96, worth -6.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model