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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 44

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(8:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.77 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP