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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 16:25 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

OAK
22.0%
KC
78.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.206 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Alex Smith (KC) +0.107 vs Derek Carr (LV) -0.054 EPA/dropback
  • KC offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • LV on 3 more days rest than KC

Predicted Final Score

OAK 16
–
KC 27
Projected margin: KC by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

OAK

D.J. Hayden CB Questionable Ankle
Neiko Thorpe CB Questionable Neck
Amari Cooper WR Probable Foot
Khalil Mack DE Probable Knee
Charles Woodson S Probable Shoulder

KC

Tamba Hali LB Questionable Thumb
Jah Reid T Questionable Knee
Husain Abdullah S Questionable Concussion
Justin Houston LB Questionable Knee
Jeff Allen G Probable Ankle
Dee Ford LB Probable Knee
Travis Kelce TE Probable Groin
Spencer Ware RB Probable Rib
Albert Wilson WR Probable Shin

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 17
–
KC 23

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:58 TD KC (10:58) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 19-J.Maclin for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 6
  • Q1 00:55 TD KC (:55) 32-S.Ware up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – KC 13
  • Q2 13:43 FG LV (13:43) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 3 – KC 14
  • Q2 03:34 TD LV (3:34) 11-A.Smith pass short right intended for 12-A.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Amerson at KC 24. 29-D.Amerson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on LV-29-D.Amerson, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. OAK 9 – KC 14
  • Q3 09:05 SAF KC (9:05) 7-M.King punt is BLOCKED by 57-D.Alexander, Center-47-T.Gafford, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. OAK 10 – KC 16
  • Q3 07:08 TD KC (7:08) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 84-D.Harris for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 10 – KC 22
  • Q4 02:08 TD LV (2:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 15-M.Crabtree for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-D.Sorensen]. OAK 16 – KC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 25%

    (7:05) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to KC 13, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 39%

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith right guard to LV 37 for 6 yards (24-C.Woodson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

    (13:43) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%

    (8:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-41-J.Winchester.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:40) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to KC 24, Center-47-T.Gafford. 85-F.Hammond to KC 31 for 7 yards (49-J.Olawale).

  • Q2 KC 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 50%

    (2:04) 2-D.Colquitt punts 30 yards to LV 9, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:26) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to KC 19, Center-47-T.Gafford. 85-F.Hammond to KC 25 for 6 yards (39-K.McGill).

  • Q3 LV 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (14:04) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to KC 15, Center-47-T.Gafford. 85-F.Hammond to KC 24 for 9 yards (31-N.Thorpe).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 21%

    (11:10) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:05) 7-M.King punt is BLOCKED by 57-D.Alexander, Center-47-T.Gafford, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (3:38) 7-M.King punts 30 yards to KC 28, Center-47-T.Gafford, downed by LV-39-K.McGill.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LV 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (12:14) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to KC 20, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 1 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (2:25) 26-R.Helu up the middle to LV 40 for 3 yards (56-D.Johnson). PENALTY on KC-38-R.Parker, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at LV 40.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 42%

    (1:40) 2-D.Colquitt punts 32 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.