Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(:26) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to KC 19, Center-47-T.Gafford. 85-F.Hammond to KC 25 for 6 yards (39-K.McGill).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.81 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 71, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model