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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 2-D.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LV 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-J.Ross.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.03 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 51, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model