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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 13 at the 93

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 7-M.King punt is BLOCKED by 57-D.Alexander, Center-47-T.Gafford, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 93, worth -5.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model