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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(12:14) 7-M.King punts 41 yards to KC 20, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.07 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model