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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 49

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(7:05) 7-M.King punts 36 yards to KC 13, Center-47-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.08 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model