4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 11

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(13:43) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Gafford, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP