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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 12

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.28 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 12, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model