4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Pat Shurmur
@
NYG Home

New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 💨 Windy Spread 4.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

PHI
36.8%
NYG
63.2%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Sam Bradford (PHI): -0.037 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

PHI 19
–
NYG 24
Projected margin: NYG by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PHI

Seyi Ajirotutu WR Out Ankle
Bennie Logan DT Out Calf
Byron Maxwell CB Out Shoulder
Jaylen Watkins CB Questionable Shin
Dennis Kelly T Probable Ankle
Caleb Sturgis K Probable right Hamstring

NYG

Craig Dahl S Out Concussion
Marshall Newhouse T Out Concussion
Cooper Taylor S Out Concussion
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Back
Jason Pierre-Paul DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 35
–
NYG 30

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:21 TD PHI (13:21) (No Huddle) 29-D.Murray right guard for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 04:10 FG NYG (4:10) 3-J.Brown 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing. PHI 7 – NYG 3
  • Q1 01:44 TD PHI (1:44) (No Huddle) 43-D.Sproles right end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – NYG 3
  • Q2 13:57 FG NYG (13:57) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing. PHI 14 – NYG 6
  • Q2 11:09 TD NYG (11:09) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 45-W.Tye for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – NYG 12
  • Q2 04:47 TD PHI (4:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 81-J.Matthews for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 20 – NYG 13
  • Q2 00:15 TD NYG (:15) (Shotgun) 23-R.Jennings right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – NYG 19
  • Q3 09:20 TD NYG (9:20) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 82-R.Randle for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 21 – NYG 26
  • Q3 03:50 TD PHI (3:50) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning sacked at PHI 21 for -7 yards (98-C.Barwin). FUMBLES (98-C.Barwin), RECOVERED by PHI-26-W.Thurmond at PHI 17. 26-W.Thurmond for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Officially, a sack for 3 yards. PHI 27 – NYG 27
  • Q4 09:28 TD PHI (9:28) (Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short left to 81-J.Matthews for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 34 – NYG 27
  • Q4 04:35 FG NYG (4:35) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing. PHI 35 – NYG 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (9:22) 69-T.Ott to NYG 45 for -11 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by NYG-9-B.Wing at NYG 45. 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to PHI 2, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (7:29) 8-D.Jones punts 38 yards to PHI 47, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (4:10) 3-J.Brown 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%

    (13:57) 3-J.Brown 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 43%

    (12:05) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to PHI 3, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by NYG-28-J.Hosley.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (7:41) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NYG 34, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 39 for 5 yards (47-T.Burton).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 46%

    (:41) 9-B.Wing punts 29 yards to PHI 9, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by NYG-25-T.Jacobs.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 30 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 68%

    (4:35) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%

    (1:51) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to NYG 42 for 3 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 58 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 45-W.Tye (95-M.Kendricks).