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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(7:41) 8-D.Jones punts 43 yards to NYG 34, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 39 for 5 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.30 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 77, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model