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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 30

New York Giants 27 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

What Actually Happened

(4:35) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model