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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 61

New York Giants 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

What Actually Happened

(:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 13-O.Beckham to NYG 42 for 3 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -1.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model