Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 58

New York Giants 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 35

(:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass incomplete short right to 45-W.Tye (95-M.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +0.84 EP
66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 58, worth -0.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model