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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 44

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 37 yards to PIT 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-R.Mostert.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model