Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to PIT: Austin Davis (CLE) -0.196 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.193 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Austin Davis in place of Johnny Manziel)
- PIT offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- CLE defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- Wind 18 mph
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 17
PIT
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:12 TD PIT (7:12) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 83-H.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 0
- Q1 01:15 FG CLE (1:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 7 – CLE 3
- Q2 02:00 FG CLE (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 7 – CLE 6
- Q2 01:02 TD PIT (1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CLE 6
- Q2 00:03 FG CLE (:03) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 14 – CLE 9
- Q3 09:43 FG PIT (9:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 17 – CLE 9
- Q4 14:57 FG CLE (14:57) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 17 – CLE 12
- Q4 10:49 TD PIT (10:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-M.Wheaton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – CLE 12
- Q4 07:43 FG PIT (7:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 28 – CLE 12
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 34Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 57%
(11:31) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge to PIT 30 for 4 yards (20-W.Allen).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%
(1:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 30Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EPp(convert) 52% p(FG) 68%
(12:35) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%
(9:13) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 37 yards to PIT 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-R.Mostert.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 86Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EPp(convert) 59%
(7:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to CLE 36, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 48 for 12 yards (21-R.Golden).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 20 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 19% p(FG) 86%
(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(14:08) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to PIT 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.
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Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%
(9:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 24Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 81%
(4:31) 7-A.Davis up the middle to PIT 23 for 1 yard (91-S.Tuitt).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%
(14:57) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 50Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 17%
(11:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to CLE 1, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas. PIT #35 (Ross) kept the ball in the field of play
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Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%
(7:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
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Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 46 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%
(4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short left intended for 11-T.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Gay at PIT 37. 22-W.Gay to PIT 44 for 7 yards (67-A.Pasztor).
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Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 57 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(2:09) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 60 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:11) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short middle to 10-D.Jennings to CLE 43 for 3 yards (55-A.Moats).
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