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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Mike Pettine
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -13.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PIT
71.6%
CLE
28.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PIT: Austin Davis (CLE) -0.196 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.193 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Austin Davis in place of Johnny Manziel)
  • PIT offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
CLE 16
Projected margin: PIT by 7 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

PIT

Martavis Bryant WR Questionable Illness
Doran Grant CB Questionable Groin
Will Allen S Probable Not Injury Related
Antwon Blake CB Probable Back
William Gay CB Probable Not Injury Related
James Harrison LB Probable Illness
Heath Miller TE Probable Not Injury Related
Michael Mitchell S Probable Shoulder
Ben Roethlisberger QB Probable Illness
Ryan Shazier LB Probable Not Injury Related
Matt Spaeth TE Probable Not Injury Related

CLE

Johnny Manziel QB Out Concussion
Marlon Moore WR Out Concussion
Tramon Williams CB Out Concussion
Glenn Winston RB Out Concussion
Karlos Dansby LB Questionable Toe
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Ankle
Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Ankle
Joe Thomas T Questionable Knee
K'Waun Williams CB Questionable Shoulder
Desmond Bryant DE Probable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 28
–
CLE 12

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:12 TD PIT (7:12) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 83-H.Miller for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 01:15 FG CLE (1:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 7 – CLE 3
  • Q2 02:00 FG CLE (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 7 – CLE 6
  • Q2 01:02 TD PIT (1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 84-A.Brown for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – CLE 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG CLE (:03) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 14 – CLE 9
  • Q3 09:43 FG PIT (9:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 17 – CLE 9
  • Q4 14:57 FG CLE (14:57) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee. PIT 17 – CLE 12
  • Q4 10:49 TD PIT (10:49) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 11-M.Wheaton for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – CLE 12
  • Q4 07:43 FG PIT (7:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 28 – CLE 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 57%

    (11:31) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short left to 82-G.Barnidge to PIT 30 for 4 yards (20-W.Allen).

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (1:15) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 68%

    (12:35) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 30%

    (9:13) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 37 yards to PIT 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-41-R.Mostert.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 86
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (7:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to CLE 36, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 48 for 12 yards (21-R.Golden).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 20 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 86%

    (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 92%

    (:03) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 8 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:08) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to PIT 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 86%

    (9:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 81%

    (4:31) 7-A.Davis up the middle to PIT 23 for 1 yard (91-S.Tuitt).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (14:57) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 17%

    (11:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to CLE 1, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas. PIT #35 (Ross) kept the ball in the field of play

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (7:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 14 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short left intended for 11-T.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Gay at PIT 37. 22-W.Gay to PIT 44 for 7 yards (67-A.Pasztor).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 57 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:09) 4-J.Berry punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short middle to 10-D.Jennings to CLE 43 for 3 yards (55-A.Moats).