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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 86

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to CLE 36, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 48 for 12 yards (21-R.Golden).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.79 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 86, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.48 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 44, worth -2.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP