4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 21

Cleveland Browns 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model