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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 15

Cleveland Browns 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) (Field Goal formation) 6-T.Coons 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-8-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.20 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 15, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model