Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 91

Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

(14:08) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to PIT 38, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.94 EP
62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model