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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 21

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.01 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model