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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 24
Cleveland Browns 9 – Pittsburgh Steelers 17
What Actually Happened
(4:31) 7-A.Davis up the middle to PIT 23 for 1 yard (91-S.Tuitt).
The Three Options
GO
+2.65 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.53 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.73 EP
KICK
+1.57 EP
- 81% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
- 19% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT
+0.04 EP
- Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
