4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 17 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(11:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to CLE 1, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas. PIT #35 (Ross) kept the ball in the field of play

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.93 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP