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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 14 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 12 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28

What Actually Happened

(4:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-A.Davis pass short left intended for 11-T.Benjamin INTERCEPTED by 22-W.Gay at PIT 37. 22-W.Gay to PIT 44 for 7 yards (67-A.Pasztor).

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.52 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP