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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 24

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.43 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model