4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
SD Away

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-01-03 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

SD
43.7%
DEN
56.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.070 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LAC on 4 more days rest than DEN
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.129 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SD 21
–
DEN 22
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SD

Orlando Franklin G Out Concussion
King Dunlap T Doubtful Ankle
Javontee Herndon WR Questionable Chest
Chris Hairston T Questionable Abdomen
Steve Johnson WR Questionable Groin
Trevor Robinson C Questionable Concussion
Manti Te'o LB Questionable Ankle
Jason Verrett CB Questionable Hamstring
Patrick Robinson CB Probable Calf
Jeremiah Attaochu LB Probable Knee
Kyle Emanuel LB Probable Concussion

DEN

Brandon Marshall LB Questionable Ankle
T.J. Ward S Questionable Ankle
C.J. Anderson RB Probable Back
Omar Bolden S Probable Hamstring
Owen Daniels TE Probable Both knees
Todd Davis LB Probable Shoulder
Peyton Manning QB Probable Foot
Lerentee McCray LB Probable Hamstring
Brock Osweiler QB Probable Left shoulder, Left elbow
Emmanuel Sanders WR Probable Ankle
Darian Stewart S Probable Hamstring
Demaryius Thomas WR Probable Hamstring
Vance Walker DE Probable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 20
–
DEN 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:41 TD DEN (14:41) (No Huddle) 17-B.Osweiler pass short right to 88-D.Thomas for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. SD 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 10:15 FG LAC (10:15) 2-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 3 – DEN 7
  • Q2 05:56 FG LAC (5:56) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres. SD 6 – DEN 7
  • Q3 08:27 TD LAC (8:27) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 12 – DEN 7
  • Q3 05:29 TD DEN (5:29) 22-C.Anderson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – DEN 13
  • Q4 13:13 FG DEN (13:13) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. SD 13 – DEN 17
  • Q4 13:09 TD LAC (13:09) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-T.Williams for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 19 – DEN 17
  • Q4 09:48 FG DEN (9:48) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. SD 20 – DEN 20
  • Q4 04:50 TD DEN (4:50) 23-R.Hillman right tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 20 – DEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 70%

    (10:15) 2-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (7:04) 5-M.Scifres punts 56 yards to DEN 35, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-83-J.Phillips.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 32%

    (1:42) 5-M.Scifres punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:28) 5-M.Scifres punts 53 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 23 for 9 yards (39-D.Woodhead).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 24%

    (9:31) 4-B.Colquitt punts 40 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:14) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to DEN 37, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 49 for 12 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%

    (5:56) 2-J.Lambo 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 17 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (1:10) 5-M.Scifres punts 41 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 27 for 12 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:03) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to DEN 5, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-16-T.Williams.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 55%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 39-D.Woodhead (36-K.Webster).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 74%

    (13:13) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 92%

    (9:48) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:56) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (6:32) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 31, Center-46-A.Brewer. 81-J.Herndon MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 22, recovered by LAC-30-M.Daniels at LAC 22. 30-M.Daniels to LAC 22 for no gain (85-V.Green).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 50%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep middle to 16-T.Williams (25-C.Harris) [97-M.Jackson].