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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 80

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(4:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to LAC 39, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 81-J.Herndon.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.38 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 37, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model