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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 17 at the 56

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 5-M.Scifres punts 41 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-M.Windt. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 27 for 12 yards (51-K.Emanuel).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.08 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model