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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 5-M.Scifres punts 55 yards to DEN 5, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-16-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.29 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model