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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 38

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete short right to 39-D.Woodhead (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.61 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model