4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 30

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:13) 8-B.McManus 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.57 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model