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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 2-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-M.Scifres.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.83 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.83 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 42, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP