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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 71

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(7:56) 5-M.Scifres punts 48 yards to DEN 23, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.43 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP