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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 40

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Denver Broncos 27

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep middle to 16-T.Williams (25-C.Harris) [97-M.Jackson].

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.75 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -1.36 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model