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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 47

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 5-M.Scifres punts 47 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.68 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model