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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 74

Washington Commanders 24 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(13:43) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to DAL 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 18 for 2 yards (22-D.Everett). PENALTY on DAL-38-J.Heath, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18. Penalty on DAL-51-K.Wilber, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model