Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to WAS: Kellen Moore (DAL) -0.155 vs Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.170 EPA/dropback
- DAL offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- WAS offense: +0.027 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 17
WAS
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:14 TD WAS (9:14) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-R.Grant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete off play action and roll left. Cousins 16th straight game with a touchdown pass; second longest streak in franchise history. WAS 6 – DAL 0
- Q1 04:28 TD WAS (4:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 88-P.Garcon for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Jarrett of Washington being evaluated for possible concussion and shoulder injury. WAS 13 – DAL 0
- Q1 00:24 TD WAS (:24) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 80-J.Crowder for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on the wheel route. WAS 20 – DAL 0
- Q2 08:20 FG WAS (8:20) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 24 – DAL 0
- Q2 03:39 TD DAL (3:39) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short left to 82-J.Witten pushed ob at WAS 1 for 3 yards (20-J.Johnson). Dallas challenged the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short left to 82-J.Witten for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – DAL 6
- Q2 00:26 TD DAL (:26) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a skinny post. WAS 24 – DAL 13
- Q3 03:01 FG WAS (3:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 27 – DAL 14
- Q4 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) 16-C.McCoy pass deep right to 19-R.Ross for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a fly pattern. WAS 33 – DAL 14
- Q4 12:27 SAF DAL (12:27) 46-A.Morris up the middle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (27-J.Wilcox, 90-D.Lawrence). WAS 34 – DAL 16
- Q4 04:22 TD DAL (4:22) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass complete on a curl route six yards deep in the endzone. WAS 34 – DAL 22
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(13:47) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 45 yards to WAS 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 55Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 47%
(10:56) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to DAL 7, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 8 at the 91Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(10:04) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 47, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to DAL 49 for 4 yards (38-J.Heath).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 14 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(12:45) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 2 yards (38-J.Heath; 57-D.Wilson).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%
(8:20) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 58Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67%
(6:20) (Punt formation) 38-J.Heath up the middle to DAL 44 for 2 yards (96-H.Bates). Rush off fake punt. Direct snap to Heath.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(1:44) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 20, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 24 for 4 yards (96-H.Bates). PENALTY on DAL-31-B.Jones, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 24.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(13:43) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to DAL 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 18 for 2 yards (22-D.Everett). PENALTY on DAL-38-J.Heath, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DAL 18. Penalty on DAL-51-K.Wilber, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 11 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(11:26) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 7 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 94%
(3:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 5 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(1:33) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EPp(convert) 58% p(FG) 32%
(7:58) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 38 yards to DAL 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 13-L.Whitehead.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 40 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 57% p(FG) 54%
(4:06) 16-C.McCoy pass short right to 80-J.Crowder to DAL 30 for 10 yards (59-A.Hitchens). Pass complete off play action and roll right.