Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 62

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Washington Commanders 24

(11:26) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to WAS 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.86 EP
71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model