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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 15

Washington Commanders 24 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(3:01) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.46 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.99 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model