Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 72

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Washington Commanders 27

(1:33) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 28, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.64 EP
58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 72, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model