Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 8 at the 91

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

(10:04) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to WAS 47, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder to DAL 49 for 4 yards (38-J.Heath).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.97 EP
63% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model