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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 40

Washington Commanders 34 – Dallas Cowboys 23

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 16-C.McCoy pass short right to 80-J.Crowder to DAL 30 for 10 yards (59-A.Hitchens). Pass complete off play action and roll right.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +1.94 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 40, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.71 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model