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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 68

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:23) 8-T.Masthay punts 35 yards to WAS 33, Center-59-R.Lovato, downed by GB-39-D.Goodson.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.83 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model