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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2016-01-10 · 16:40 FedExField, Landover US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

GB
27.6%
WAS
72.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.187 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) -0.102 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • WAS offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 18
–
WAS 25
Projected margin: WAS by 7 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

GB

Sam Shields CB Doubtful Concussion
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Ankle
Jayrone Elliott LB Questionable Quadricep
Datone Jones DE Questionable Neck
Justin Perillo TE Questionable Hamstring
Corey Linsley C Probable Ankle
Clay Matthews LB Probable Ankle
Andy Mulumba LB Probable Knee
Nick Perry LB Probable Shoulder
Lane Taylor G Probable Knee
Bryan Bulaga T Probable Ankle
Mike Daniels DT Probable Hamstring
Letroy Guion DT Probable Foot
Eddie Lacy RB Probable Rib
T.J. Lang G Probable Neck
Mike Neal LB Probable Hip
Damarious Randall CB Probable Groin
Josh Sitton G Probable Back

WAS

Quinton Dunbar CB Questionable Quadricep
Dashon Goldson S Questionable Shoulder
Matt Jones RB Questionable Hip
Perry Riley LB Questionable Foot
DeSean Jackson WR Probable Knee
Jeron Johnson S Probable Chest
Dashaun Phillips CB Probable Neck
Chris Thompson RB Probable Toe
Trent Williams T Probable Knee
Jason Hatcher DE Probable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 35
–
WAS 18

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:33 SAF WAS (10:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers sacked in End Zone for -5 yards, SAFETY (94-P.Smith). GB 0 – WAS 2
  • Q1 04:54 FG WAS (4:54) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. GB 0 – WAS 5
  • Q2 13:07 TD WAS (13:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep middle to 86-J.Reed for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – WAS 11
  • Q2 09:09 TD GB (9:09) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-93-T.Murphy, Defensive 12 On-field, declined. Penalty on WAS-93-T.Murphy, Defensive Offside, declined. GB 6 – WAS 11
  • Q2 02:57 FG GB (2:57) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 10 – WAS 11
  • Q2 00:33 TD GB (:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – WAS 11
  • Q3 09:44 TD WAS (9:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – WAS 17
  • Q3 04:18 TD GB (4:18) (No Huddle) 44-J.Starks right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – WAS 18
  • Q4 12:27 TD GB (12:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 27-E.Lacy up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 30 – WAS 18
  • Q4 04:43 FG GB (4:43) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay. GB 35 – WAS 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:23) 8-T.Masthay punts 35 yards to WAS 33, Center-59-R.Lovato, downed by GB-39-D.Goodson.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:58) 5-T.Way punts 57 yards to GB 5, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 33-M.Hyde to GB 17 for 12 yards (51-W.Compton). PENALTY on GB-39-D.Goodson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 9 yards, enforced at GB 17.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (4:54) 3-D.Hopkins 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:08) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to WAS 32, Center-59-R.Lovato, downed by GB-83-J.Janis.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 15 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:28) 5-T.Way punts 60 yards to GB 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-35-D.Phillips.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:33) 8-T.Masthay punts 45 yards to WAS 41, Center-59-R.Lovato. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at GB 49 for 10 yards (30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on WAS-40-C.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 46.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 82%

    (2:57) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:34) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to GB 23, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 33-M.Hyde to GB 40 for 17 yards (54-M.Foster).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 82%

    (11:16) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 86-J.Reed to GB 7 for 17 yards (48-J.Thomas; 42-M.Burnett).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 30%

    (5:43) 27-E.Lacy left end pushed ob at WAS 34 for 11 yards (41-W.Blackmon).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:15) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to GB 24, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-93-T.Murphy.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 19 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 28%

    (9:05) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to GB 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-96-H.Bates.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:03) 8-T.Masthay punts 55 yards to WAS 9, Center-59-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:02) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at WAS 17 for -6 yards (53-N.Perry).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 95%

    (4:43) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 4 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (2:55) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at GB 20 for -16 yards (96-M.Neal).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 17 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 82%

    (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson to GB 13 for 11 yards (33-M.Hyde; 29-C.Hayward).