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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 7 – Washington Commanders 11

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 2-M.Crosby 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-R.Lovato, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.20 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP